Sadr Wins! Maliki Loses! Or something like that

The MSM has weighed in on the ceasefire negotiations, and they're handing the match to al-Sadr by virtually unanimous decision (here, here, and here). I know I'm in the minority on this, but Moqtada's increased political acumen aside, you don't bargain with someone you can continue to defy with impunity. By no means is this a blowout win for al-Maliki, but the last round of violence provided exactly the type of situation where al-Sadr would have handily beaten the Prime Minister even a year ago.

Any arrangement where JAM is kept out of the fighting and al-Maliki can retain his independence is a win in the long term for Iraq. While the issue of disarmament will have to be dealt with eventually, the bigger issue is getting al-Sadr to buy into the political process. Once that happens (a big if, to be sure), then disarmament will be a much more surmountable problem. I hope that al-Maliki knew that he just can't disarm the JAM, but wanted to establish a strong position for later compromise (otherwise the PM has been drinking the GI Kool-Aid). Bottom Line: the Iraqi Army is taking baby steps towards standing up to the militias, and the Iraqi Government has survived a potentially devastating situation caused by British negligence in Southern Iraq. Second-guess all you want, but that's far from the serious setback that the media is trumpeting.

EDIT: Abu Aardvark thinks al-Maliki was indeed drinking the Kool-Aid, and he has moved me to agree. Significantly, though, he too sees a long term picture with the possibility of progress. I'll admit to being a little more optimistic about the chances of political cooperation, but I completely concur with the perspective.

JAM cries Uncle

Yes, the number of updates this month has been shameful, but don't count on an immediate onslaught on posts. It could be mid-May before I start really churning out material.

In light of Sadr's pullback in Basra and throughout the country, we really ought to be asking ourselves about the health of the JAM. The Long War Journal provides a surprisingly thorough assessment of JAM losses, arriving at an encouraging estimate of 1.5-2.5 percent attrition over a five-day period. That kind of loss rate is not sustainable, and the JAM knows it.

It seems clear that Sadr is no longer in a position to dictate politics to the Shia community. The move to civil disobedience is as much about conservation of forces as it is about regaining legitimacy. Maliki is fully independent of Sadr (a development which is not getting nearly enough attention in the mass media) and aiming to eliminate JAM as an armed threat to the state. Early reports of Iraqi defections have been officially refuted, and given Sadr's decision, it seems the Iraqi Army maintained cohesion during the recent violence. While a lot of credit should be given to the people negotiated with Sadr, kudos to the US and Iraqi forces for bringing him to the table.