Sadr Wins! Maliki Loses! Or something like that

The MSM has weighed in on the ceasefire negotiations, and they're handing the match to al-Sadr by virtually unanimous decision (here, here, and here). I know I'm in the minority on this, but Moqtada's increased political acumen aside, you don't bargain with someone you can continue to defy with impunity. By no means is this a blowout win for al-Maliki, but the last round of violence provided exactly the type of situation where al-Sadr would have handily beaten the Prime Minister even a year ago.

Any arrangement where JAM is kept out of the fighting and al-Maliki can retain his independence is a win in the long term for Iraq. While the issue of disarmament will have to be dealt with eventually, the bigger issue is getting al-Sadr to buy into the political process. Once that happens (a big if, to be sure), then disarmament will be a much more surmountable problem. I hope that al-Maliki knew that he just can't disarm the JAM, but wanted to establish a strong position for later compromise (otherwise the PM has been drinking the GI Kool-Aid). Bottom Line: the Iraqi Army is taking baby steps towards standing up to the militias, and the Iraqi Government has survived a potentially devastating situation caused by British negligence in Southern Iraq. Second-guess all you want, but that's far from the serious setback that the media is trumpeting.

EDIT: Abu Aardvark thinks al-Maliki was indeed drinking the Kool-Aid, and he has moved me to agree. Significantly, though, he too sees a long term picture with the possibility of progress. I'll admit to being a little more optimistic about the chances of political cooperation, but I completely concur with the perspective.