By now, all the major news services are reporting on the resignation of Fidel Castro. While in some ways this does mark the end of an era (has anyone had such a successful career of defying the US?) the reality on the ground in Cuba is not going to change. The hard truth is that Fidel has only been a shadow of himself for the last two years, and his brother Raul has probably been running the show for some time now. If the official transfer of power to Raul goes off smoothly, this event in and of itself means nothing. If a next-generation communist leader steps to the forefront in Cuba, on the other hand...
American officials have already ruled out the smartest course of action, which would be a removal of the embargo. It's no secret that the Fidel-US feud has been a personal affair, and with his retirement a normalization of trade would throw the communists for a loop. But this White House would never produce such a unilateral gesture. It'll be up to the next president to confront the lingering issue of Cuba, and up to Raul to decide if he wants to stay within his brother's framework or venture down the path of limited economic reform. Certainly China, Cuba's new benefactor in the post-Soviet era, would be willing to provide advice and expertise.
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