Saturday, April 26, 2008

An Unfortunate Comparison

Remember two weeks ago when Crocker compared Iraq to Lebanon? That analogy made me a little nervous, and news like this doesn't do anything to help. Iran's attempts to involve itself in sectarian disputes helped create the self-sufficient Shiite militias that have rejected government attempts to maintain a monopoly on armed force. The population, recognizing that rejection, will not trust the government to ensure their personal security - thus, the rush to buy all sorts of portable weapons.

Even if the United States is able to remove Iran's sponsorship of factions within Iraq, it will have to contend with a more mature and professional set of militias. While disarming and neutralizing those militias will be even more difficult given their development, the alternative is to rob the Baghdad government of public confidence in times of crisis. We will not be able to claim success in Iraq until it reaches a level of stability superior to Lebanon's chronic para-military tensions.

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