American and Iraqi officials blame Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia for most of the killings, which spiked after the Dec. 29 release of an audio recording in which Osama bin Laden called the volunteer tribesmen “traitors” and “infidels.” While the organization is overwhelmingly Iraqi and Sunni, American military officials say it has foreign leadership, though its links with Mr. bin Laden himself are unclear.
Officials say that Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia has a two-pronged strategy: directing strikes against Awakening members to intimidate and punish them for cooperating with the Americans, and infiltrating the groups to glean intelligence and discredit the movement in the eyes of an already wary Shiite-led government.It has been interesting to watch the focus of Al Qaeda progressively narrow since the original invasion of Iraq. Immediately after the fall of Baghdad, Al Qaeda positioned itself as the vanguard of Islam engaged in battle against the imperial West. As the conflict intensified and Zarqawi rose to prominence, Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia allowed itself to be drawn into sectarian conflict with the Shias. Now, with the explicit consent of bin Laden, Al Qaeda is reduced to targeting fellow Sunni Muslims.
Tactically, this is a viable threat to stability in Iraq. Strategically, it reeks of desperation. Even if Al Qaeda succeeds in marginalizing the Awakening, it runs the risk of alienating its last remaining constituency. Al Qaeda's coercive measures helped push the Anbar tribes into American arms in the first place; now it thinks it can bully them back into neutrality. In the long run, these attacks will ensure Al Qaeda's rejection in all quarters, both Sunni and Shia. In the short term, however, it could undermine the most visible example of US progress in the last two years.
Fortunately for Al Qaeda, the Sunnis appear to be more concerned with the threat from Shiite militias.
[Officials] are worried about losing men like Omar Abbas, 23, one of the thousands of Awakening foot soldiers who expose themselves to danger every day at checkpoints throughout the country. American and Iraqi officials agree that Al Qaeda is the major threat, followed by the Shiite militias.
But many Awakening members like Mr. Abbas turn that hierarchy of risk upside down, singling out the Shiite militias.
“Badr is the worst threat,” he said, referring to the military arm of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a leading Shiite political party. The next greatest threat, he said, is the Mahdi Army, the armed wing of the political movement of the radical Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr. Both militias have deep influence in Iraq’s security forces.
Opinion appears divided on whether the Shiite militias are acting on their own initiative or with the approval of the top Shiite leadership. Suspicions of Iranian involvement are rampant, although little direct evidence exists. Clearly, though, at least some members of the Shia community have decided to exploit the newly vulnerable Sunni Awakening after watching it thrive with the encouragement of the US. The White House needs to apply as much pressure as possible on Maliki and the Shiite contingent to rein in these attacks while American troops assist the Sunnis in their fight against Al-Qaeda. If Maliki cannot call off the dogs, then the Sunnis will continue to prepare for sectarian conflict and ignore the importance of collective Iraqi security. There is an opportunity here to curtail Sunni disaffection with the political progress in Baghdad, if only the Iraqi government can muster the courage and influence to prevent another round of bloody retribution.(Click here for Intel Dump's take on today's news article)
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